Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

San Antonio is laying the biggest number on tonight's board as a 1-2 team whose only win came by 16 points at Dallas. Sacramento arrives winless and on the second night of a back-to-back, but Zach LaVine is averaging 29.0 points and Domantas Sabonis is pulling down 17.3 rebounds per game. Whether a number this large survives four quarters against two scorers like that is the question in San Antonio.

The Matchup

San Antonio is 1-2, and its week has been competitive without being dominant. The Spurs lost to Oklahoma City and Houston, then won 122-106 at Dallas on Sunday for their first win. They score 112.0 points per game and allow 112.0, dead even.

Rookie Dylan Harper leads San Antonio at 20.0 points per game, De'Aaron Fox runs the offense at 8.3 assists per game against his old team, and Victor Wembanyama leads the Spurs at 11.0 rebounds per game. Last season San Antonio went 62-20, so the ceiling in this room is high. Three games into this season, the Spurs have looked like a good team, not a great one.

Sacramento is 0-3 and played last night. The Kings lost at the Clippers, lost 128-120 to Portland, then lost 123-112 to Memphis at home on Monday before flying to San Antonio. They score 109.3 points per game and allow 124.0, the worst defensive mark on tonight's board. The offense has two real pieces. LaVine leads Sacramento at 29.0 points per game, and Sabonis leads the team at 17.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game. Last season Sacramento finished 22-60, and this start looks like a continuation, not a slump.

Keegan Murray is out tonight with an ankle injury, with a return expected around November 6. Dylan Cardwell is out with a strained left calf, Maxime Raynaud is out with a dislocated right knee, and Ben Simmons is out after Achilles surgery. San Antonio is without Tobias Harris, who is out with a strained left calf and a return expected around October 28, and Jayden Quaintance, who is out after knee surgery. DraftKings makes San Antonio an 18.5-point favorite, with a total of 232.5.

Key Factors

The margin is the whole argument. San Antonio's only win this season came by 16 points, and covering 18.5 asks the Spurs to score well above their 112.0-point average while holding Sacramento near 100. Sacramento's last two games produced 120 and 112 points, because LaVine can score against any coverage and Sabonis keeps possessions alive on the glass. A favorite has to keep playing hard for 48 minutes to hold a number like this, and San Antonio has not had to do that yet.

Sacramento's legs are the honest counterpoint. The Kings played last night, traveled, and own a defense that allows 124.0 points per game on fresh legs. If the game breaks open in the third quarter, Sacramento has no defensive gear to climb back with, and a blowout is easy to picture. Wembanyama protecting the rim against a tired team is how the favorite runs away with this.

Sabonis against Wembanyama decides how long Sacramento stays in range. Sabonis is averaging 17.3 rebounds per game, and every offensive rebound is a possession San Antonio has to defend again and a minute off the clock. If Sabonis can pull Wembanyama away from the rim and keep second chances coming, the Kings can trade baskets long enough for the points to matter.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.