Schalke 04 vs TSG Hoffenheim Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Schalke 04 have scored four goals all season, and Sunday takes them to a Hoffenheim side whose home matches average four goals. Something has to give at the PreZero Arena, and Schalke's attack has given in almost every week.

The Matchup

Schalke 04 are seventeenth with 6 points, and the whole story fits in one line of their record: four goals scored in eight matches. They have scored once in their last five, a Kenan Karaman goal in a 2-1 defeat at Freiburg, and they have been shut out by Mainz, Leipzig and, at home, by Elversberg in a goalless draw that flattered nobody.

The defence and the goalkeeper are keeping them respectable. Schalke have conceded only 9 goals, and Loris Karius has made 43 saves, the workload of a man whose side treats possession as a rumor. Adil Aouchiche leads their scoring chart with a single goal, which is the saddest sentence in the Bundesliga this season.

Hoffenheim are fourteenth on 9 points, and their home matches are the opposite kind of viewing. They have scored 9 goals in four matches at the PreZero Arena, beating Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 there on October 25, and their attack is spread wide: Adam Daghim has 2 goals and 2 assists, Adam Hlozek has 2 goals from 22 shots, and Bambasé Conté has 2 goals and 2 assists.

The catch is the other end. Hoffenheim have conceded 16 goals in eight matches, 7 of them at home, and they lost 2-0 at Werder Bremen last weekend. They are a side that can produce a 3-0 or a 2-3 on any given Sunday, and Schalke's whole plan will be to make sure it is neither.

Team news is confirmed. Hoffenheim line up in a 4-2-2-2, with Oliver Baumann in goal, Fisnik Asllani and Tim Lemperle starting as the front two and Andrej Kramaric and Alexander Prass behind them. Adam Daghim and Adam Hlozek, who were expected to start in the forward line, are both on the bench, and Bambasé Conté, who has 2 goals and 2 assists this season, is not in the squad at all.

Schalke line up in a 5-3-2, with Loris Karius in goal, a back five in front of him, and Kenan Karaman and Hwang Hee-Chan starting as the front two, with Adil Aouchiche in the midfield three. Junior Adamu, who was expected to lead the Schalke line, is on the bench.

Key Factors

A total this high needs two attacks, and this match only has one. Schalke have scored once in five matches and 4 times all season, so almost the entire burden of reaching four goals falls on a Hoffenheim side that is dangerous at home but hardly relentless: they were shut out at Bremen last weekend and held to 2 by Gladbach in a win that owed plenty to patience.

Schalke's defensive record is the quiet support for the under. Nine conceded in eight matches, with Karius facing shots but rarely sieges, and their away matches have produced a goal a game at their own end and a goal and a half against.

The counterpoint is Hoffenheim at home, and it is not a small one. They put 3 past Leverkusen here, lost 3-2 to Hamburg here, and concede at a rate that invites even a blunt attack into the game. If Hoffenheim score twice in the first half, Schalke have to come out, and the match this pick fears is the 3-1 or the 2-2 that open games between a desperate visitor and a loose host can become.

What answers it is Schalke themselves: chasing games has produced one goal in five weeks, and a side that cannot score when it sits in does not usually start scoring when it opens up. Exactly three goals halves the outcome rather than ruining it, which fits a match most likely to be decided by Hoffenheim's attack against a wall.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.