Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday
Chicago arrives with the weakest attack on the slate and its most creative passer out of the lineup. Tampa Bay has won all seven of its home games, and the distance between these teams shows up in almost every column that decides a hockey game.
The Matchup
Tampa Bay is 9-3-2, scoring 3.71 goals per game and allowing 3.14 for a +0.57 differential, and the Lightning have been perfect at home at 7-0-0. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 16 assists and 20 points, and Brandon Hagel has 8 goals. The Lightning do not need a special night to score four. It is close to their ordinary night in this building.
Chicago is 4-10-1 and at the bottom of nearly everything. The Blackhawks score 2.20 goals per game, the lowest mark on the Thursday slate, and allow 3.87, for a -1.67 differential that is the worst in this matchup by more than a goal.
Connor Bedard leads Chicago with 10 points and Roman Kantserov has 6 goals, but Patrick Kane is out with an upper body injury, and Kane's 8 assists were the most creative passing Chicago had. Without him, Bedard draws every hard matchup alone. Bowen Byram is on injured reserve as well, while Tampa Bay lists only Yanni Gourde on injured reserve and Zemgus Girgensons day-to-day with a lower body injury.
Chicago has also lost four of its last five and has not won on the road, at 0-5-1. The setting, the form, and the rosters all point the same way.
Key Factors
The margin case starts with arithmetic Chicago cannot fix in one night. Tampa Bay scores 3.71 per game at home against a defense allowing 3.87, while Chicago scores 2.20 against a team allowing 3.14. When the Blackhawks fall behind, and this defense puts them behind most nights, they have to open up, and opening up against Kucherov's line is how a 3-1 game becomes 5-1 in the third period. That chase is the mechanism for a two-goal margin, not just a win.
The crease deepens it. Arvid Soderblom is the probable starter for Chicago at a 4.66 goals-against average and a .829 save percentage, and Spencer Knight has carried the heavier Chicago workload at 3.28 and .894. Andrei Vasilevskiy starts for Tampa Bay at 2.91 and .879.
Special teams offer Chicago no rescue either: the Blackhawks convert 10.6 percent on the power play, the weakest mark here, and their 79.6 percent kill faces a Tampa Bay power play converting 16.3 percent. The underdog case is Bedard stealing a night and Knight standing on his head. A two-goal loss needs neither of those to be heroic, just ordinary, and ordinary has been enough against Chicago all season.
Chicago cannot score enough to keep this close, and chasing Tampa Bay at home is how one-goal games become three-goal games late. Take the Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 at -175.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday (11/5) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | NHL |
| Venue | Benchmark International Arena |
| Spread | -1.5 |
| Total | 6.5 |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -410 |
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