Colorado Avalanche vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday
Colorado scores 4.05 goals per game and Montreal has not lost in regulation in ten games, and the whole matchup may turn on two names on Colorado's injury report. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are both day-to-day, and Saturday at the Bell Centre is a different game depending on whether they dress.
The Matchup
Colorado is 11-6-3, scoring 4.05 goals per game and allowing 3.10, a +0.95 differential from the second-highest-scoring team on the Saturday slate. Artturi Lehkonen leads the Avalanche with 14 goals, and Nathan MacKinnon has 20 assists and 30 points. Colorado fires 30.4 shots a night, and the road split is the honest concern: 4-5-1 away from home, with a 4-3 overtime loss at Ottawa on Thursday the latest road stumble. When the Avalanche travel well, they overwhelm teams. When they do not, the defensive end leaks.
Montreal is 12-3-4, scoring 3.42 per game and allowing 3.00 for a +0.42 differential, and the Canadiens have taken points in ten straight games. Cole Caufield leads Montreal with 12 goals and 18 points, and Lane Hutson has 15 assists from the blue line. Montreal is 5-2-3 at the Bell Centre and beat Boston 5-2 on Thursday. This is the first meeting of the season between the teams, and Montreal's home crowd gets a genuine measuring-stick game against one of the league's heaviest attacks.
Key Factors
The availability report decides how strong this pick is, so it comes first. Nathan MacKinnon is day-to-day with a lower body injury. Keep an eye on whether MacKinnon plays before placing a bet.
Cale Makar is day-to-day with a lower body injury. Keep an eye on whether Makar plays before placing a bet. Josh Manson is out tonight on long-term injured reserve, and Zachary L'Heureux is out tonight on long-term injured reserve.
Montreal has its own questions: Chris Kreider is day-to-day with a leg injury, Ivan Demidov is out tonight on injured reserve, and goaltender Sam Montembeault is out tonight on injured reserve. If MacKinnon and Makar both dress, Colorado's best players are better than Montreal's. If either sits, this pick gets much thinner, and the guidance above is there for a reason.
The matchup under the injury news still leans Colorado. Montreal converts just 13.8 percent on the power play, one of the weakest marks on the slate, against a Colorado kill of 80.3 percent, while the Avalanche convert 23.9 percent against a Canadiens kill of 78.1 percent.
In net, Jacob Fowler has been Montreal's story at 2.13 and .926, with Jakub Dobes at 4.04 and .847 behind him, and Colorado's Mackenzie Blackwood is at 2.63 and .901. Montreal's case is Fowler, the ten-game points run, and home ice. It fails if Colorado is whole, because the Avalanche create more shots, score more goals, and own the special teams edge at both ends.
Colorado's attack is too deep for a Montreal power play this quiet to keep pace with, provided the Avalanche stars dress. Take the Colorado Avalanche moneyline at -102.
Game Information
| Date | Saturday (11/14) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | NHL |
| Venue | Bell Centre |
| Total | 6.5 |
| Moneyline | Montreal Canadiens -118 |
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